All graphs herein are the work, property, and copyright of Dr. Michael Levitt of Stanford University. Other contributers to the underlying work are Franceso Zonta and Andrea Scaiewicz. All quotes are Dr. Michael Levitt's direct from the linked Tweet of his Twitter account. All other notes are my own.
SOURCES for all data used for calculations of mortality
For most recent excess deaths of individual countries and US states see EXCESS DEATH by LOCATION
9 April: "All our data indicates that COVID-19 Israel is no longer an issue. With 1,600 extra deaths over those expected by age-adjusted calculations, the death toll was just 3.6% higher than expected over 60 weeks from start of 2020."
from TWEET: Israel 9 April 2021 for week 7 (21 February 2021) : NOTE: Total excess death for Israel at 21 Feb 2021 = 1615 (excess death for ages under 65 = -219 ; excess for ages over 65 = 1834 );
22 May: Graph below from TWEET: Israel 22 May 2021 for week 11 (21 March 2021)
NOTE: Israel's excess deaths are still low, having increased only 31, 8 in over ages 65 and 23 in under age 65. Total excess death for Israel at 21 Mar 2021 = 1646 (excess death for ages under 65 = -196 ; excess for ages over 65 = 1842) ;
20 Aug: "Wish I knew. Maybe each population has own natural immunity threshold due to prior infections. Threshold would be high in India due to crowding & hygiene. Also Sweden as many aged. Low in Israel due to high fraction of population who are young & health. IL & SE ex-death low"
from TWEET: 20 Aug 2021
NOTE: TOTAL EXCESS DEATH ISRAEL: 1367 (excess death for ages under 65= -234 ; ages over 65= 1601)
"Latest excess death since Jan-2020, age-adjusted for population of five age-bands using 2017 to 2019 as reference. Most reliable death data from for 38 locations only from mortality.org Sweden < 2 weeks; Israel < 4 weeks. Why such high excess death < 65 in Chile?"
from TWEET: 16 Sep 2021
NOTE: death for ages under 65 = -345 excess for ages over 65 = 1634 TOTAL : 1289
"Sweden: keep infection spreading for even distribution of immune. Israel: high level of cases & vaccination but no effort to spread evenly. Israel now has sizable pockets of susceptible people. Surely expert epidemiologists knew lockdown would cause this? Now we pay double."
from TWEET: 27 Sep 21
NOTE: TOTAL excess death: 1707 ; for ages under 65 = -303 ; for ages over 65 = 2010
"Here are the updated age-adjusted excess mortality numbers. Also weekly graphs for Sweden, Israel and England & Wales. Some take-aways:
from TWEET: 21 Oct 2021
from TWEET: 21 Oct 2021
from TWEET: 29 Jan 2022
9 Aug: "Chile has been hit really hard in terms of excess death ... Excess death very high for the under 65-year olds (1.5X normal). Reported cases & deaths are coming down at long last so I have hope."
from TWEET: Chile 9 Aug 2021 for week 22 (6 Jun)
10 Aug: "Chile’s all-cause death without my customary six week delay, shows that excess death to 2021_28 (19-Jul-21) is still high, especially for under 65-year olds. Reported COVID-19 cases are dropping quickly; deaths are not. It seems that under-65 have 30% more deaths all year.""
from TWEET: Chile 10 Aug 2021 for Week 28 ( 19 July )
"NYC is highest spike and also most complete first wave saturation. Still others have similar “spikiness”"
from TWEET: 1 Oct 2021
NOTE: TOTAL excess death: 32859 ; for ages under 65 = 10410; for ages over 65 = 22449 ;
Jul 3: "UK reported COVID-19 Cases/Death, CFR, is 1200 - 400 as delay from case to death varies from 0 to 30 days. Maximum IFR 0.08 to 0.25%. UK E&W excess death to week 15 or 23 negative for all & noisy for ages 15-64. Good news! Delta variant seems weak. ..... ?"
from TWEET: UK: 3 Jul 2021 for week 16 (25 Apr 2021)
NOTE: death for ages under 65 = 15372 ; excess for ages over 65 = 53840 ; Total Excess Death = 72912
from TWEET: 1 Oct 2021
NOTE: Total excess deaths: 65659
Jul 8: "Update on UK and the Delta Variant. Recent UK death is as expected so no excess. Reported COVID-19 deaths are 500 to 1,000 times less than cases so CRF of ~0.2% to ~0.07%. These carefully recorded UK data could prove or disprove the dangers of Delta."
from TWEET: UK: 8 Jul 2021 week 24 (20 Jun 2021)
NOTE: death for ages under 65 = 15647 ; excess for ages over 65 = 46483 ; Total Excess Death = 62130
"Here are the updated age-adjusted excess mortality numbers. Also weekly graphs for Sweden, Israel and England & Wales. Some take-aways: (1) Sweden in deficit all year. (2) Israel excess 2021_29 to 2021_35 (3) UK E&W in deficit since 2021_09. Slight excess since 21_29."
]from TWEET: ENG WALES 21 Oct 2021
from TWEET: 19 Sep 2021
NOTE: excess death for ages under 65 = 17236 ; for ages over 65 = 47132 ; TOTAL : 64368
from TWEET: 22 DEC 2021 “In England & Wales (ENW, most of UK), there have been zero excess deaths in the 44 weeks since 1-Feb-2021. In that same period to 22-Nov-2021, there were 1.47 million cases COVID-19. If we add Scotland & Northern Ireland to ENW the start of the period is a bit later on 5-Feb.”
from TWEET: 19 Sep 2021
NOTE: excess death for ages under 65 = 1904 for ages over 65 = 3241 ; TOTAL 5145:
from TWEET: 19 Sep 2021
NOTE: excess death for ages under 65= 422 for ages over 65 =618 ; TOTAL= 1040 :
NOTE: Expected death rates are calculated seperately for each of three years previous to the Covid epidemic, (2017, 2018, 2019). Deaths of each age band is divided by population of each age band then dividing that by 1 million in order to find how many deaths per million were normally expected in the abscence of Covid for each year. The results of these 3 years are then averaged together, still keeping each age band seperate.
Deaths rates that happened during the Covid pandemic are then calculated the same way, deaths per age band divided by the population of that age band for the year in question, which as of this writing would be 2020 and 2021, and then standardized to 1 million just like the expected baseline was. So the expected baseline for 2020 will be different than the expected baseline for 2021 because the populations of those years are different.
"Dramatic! http://mortality.org lacks age adjustment. With it, excess death, all 4 countries have clear death deficit in 2021. Sweden is special as this deficit death continues until week 37, while there is small excess death in the last 6 weeks in the other three countries."
from TWEET: 14 Oct 2021
from TWEET: June 14 2021
"Dramatic! http://mortality.org lacks age adjustment. With it, excess death, all 4 countries have clear death deficit in 2021. Sweden is special as this deficit death continues until week 37, while there is small excess death in the last 6 weeks in the other three countries."
from TWEET: 14 Oct 2021
"Jan 21 mortality.org plots are not age-adjusted. During the two years of COVID-19, really very little age-adjusted (using http://mortality.org deaths & populations) all-cause excess death there or in Norway, Sweden & Finland.
from TWEET: 21 Jan 2022
"Dramatic! http://mortality.org lacks age adjustment. With it, excess death, all 4 countries have clear death deficit in 2021. Sweden is special as this deficit death continues until week 37, while there is small excess death in the last 6 weeks in the other three countries."
from TWEET: 14 Oct 2021
from TWEET: Sweden : 5 April 2021 for week 12 ( 28 Mar 2021
NEWEST BELOW
"Here are the updated age-adjusted excess mortality numbers. Also weekly graphs for Sweden, Israel and England & Wales. Some take-aways: (1) Sweden in deficit all year. (2) Israel excess 2021_29 to 2021_35 (3) UK E&W in deficit since 2021_09. Slight excess since 21_29."
from TWEET: 21 Oct 2021
"Dramatic! http://mortality.org lacks age adjustment. With it, excess death, all 4 countries have clear death deficit in 2021. Sweden is special as this deficit death continues until week 37, while there is small excess death in the last 6 weeks in the other three countries."
from TWEET: 14 Oct 2021
"Sweden: keep infection spreading for even distribution of immune. Israel: high level of cases & vaccination but no effort to spread evenly. Israel now has sizable pockets of susceptible people. Surely expert epidemiologists knew lockdown would cause this? Now we pay double."
from TWEET: 27 Sep 21
NOTE: TOTAL excess death: - 1196 ; for ages under 65 = -469 ; for ages over 65 = -1127
"mortality.org plots are not age-adjusted. During the two years of COVID-19, really very little age-adjusted (using http://mortality.org deaths & populations) all-cause excess death there or in Norway, Sweden & Finland.
from TWEET: 21 Jan 2022
“Excess death in Austria & Germany is low to week 43 (30 October 2021). Still in both places there a small but worrying increase over the past two weeks. Meanwhile excess death in Sweden is less than expected & dropping week by week.”
from TWEET: 24 Nov 2021
from TWEET: 24 Aug 2021
from TWEET: 16 Sep 2021
NOTE: Total Excess : 7579 (over age 65=7365, under age 65=214)
"Germany & Sweden have very similar excess deaths profiles. Could Germany have fared better than the other large European countries like Italy, Spain, France & UK because it has a less centralized population distribution? In SWE & DEU, COVID-19 no worse than 2017-18 Influenza."
from TWEET: 21 Oct 2021
NOTE: Total Excess : 12643(over age 65=11238, under age 65=1405)
from TWEET: Sep 24 2021
First published on Twitter 21 Jan 2021. Methods explained :
"Data can be used in 3 ways to calculate expected deaths.
If a country's population is increasing, the number of expected deaths by scheme (2) will be greater than by (1). If the proportion of older people is increasing in recent years, the expected deaths by age-adjusted scheme (3) will be greater than by (1) or (2). We use (3).
The proportion of elderly is increasing in some countries affected by WWII, where the average age of baby-boomers, born between 1945 and 1965, is now 65. Also, recent northern winters have been milder leading to lower flu deaths, so populations of elderly are increasing.
Each country had number of natural deaths a year. Excess death can be expressed either as a percentage or as number of weeks of risk (1 week is 1/52 of the annual deaths or ~2%). Weeks of risk help show that each week year we live, there is an age-dependent risk of dying.
This is by far my most complicate Tweet. It was produced using a template from Jose Gefaell @ChGefaell using graphs made by @andreascaie Jose also taught me how to embed the plots in a slide show. Thanks to both."
©HeatherRenkel2021
